stdClass Object
(
    [id] => 14918
    [paper_index] => 202501-10-019753
    [title] => MODELLING HIV-PREVALENCE AMONG INDIVIDUALS AGED 15-49 IN UGANDA
    [description] => 
    [author] => Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John, Maniple Everd Bikaitwoha
    [googlescholar] => 
    [doi] => 
    [year] => 2025
    [month] => January
    [volume] => 11
    [issue] => 1
    [file] => fm/jpanel/upload/2025/January/202501-10-019753.pdf
    [abstract] => This study models HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 in Uganda, by utilizing historical data from 1990 to 2022 using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. Time-series data from the World Bank is employed, with HIV prevalence (% of population aged 15-49) as the dependent variable while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components are the independent variables. Parameter estimation, conducted using generalized least squares (GLS), revealing a negative and statistically significant AR(1) coefficient (-0.705706), implying a strong inverse relationship between the previous year’s HIV prevalence and the current year’s prevalence accounting for approximately 71%. Estimated ARIMA (1, 2, 5) model is covariance stationary and invertible, confirming its robustness in forecasting HIV prevalence trends. Projections indicate a gradual stabilization between 5.2% in 2023 and 5.1% by 2042, signaling diminishing returns in reducing HIV prevalence rates. We recommend implementing targeted interventions including effective HIV prevention and treatment programs and supporting long-term strategies to reduce HIV prevalence in the country.
    [keywords] => ARIMA modelling, HIV-prevalence
    [doj] => 2025-01-25
    [hit] => 
    [status] => 
    [award_status] => P
    [orderr] => 4
    [journal_id] => 10
    [googlesearch_link] => 
    [edit_on] => 
    [is_status] => 1
    [journalname] => International Journal of Global Economic Light (JGEL)
    [short_code] => IJEP
    [eissn] => 2250-2017
    [pissn] => 
    [home_page_wrapper] => images/products_image/7.JGEL.png
)
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