India dominates global cumin production but faces challenges in sustaining its competitiveness due to fluctuating yield levels, export instability, and quality-related rejections. This study examines the direction of trade and competitiveness of cumin exports from India using a comprehensive analysis over a 30-year period (1991–92 to 2020–21). The research employs various analytical tools including growth and instability indices, Markov chain analysis, gravity model estimations, and measures such as Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC). The findings reveal that while India has a strong comparative advantage in cumin production (RCA = 18.44), its price competitiveness is diminishing (NPC nearing 1), largely due to rising domestic prices and lack of alignment with global quality standards. Export volume rather than price is driving trade performance, and India's trade concentration is skewed towards select partners, with limited penetration into high-value markets. Besides, the gravity model emphasizes the role of GDP and trade openness of importing countries over geographical distance. Overall, the study suggests that enhancing yield through improved agricultural practices, adopting stringent quality controls, and expanding market outreach are critical for India to retain its leadership in global cumin exports.