EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY AND INDIA'S BILATERAL TRADE WITH USA AND CHINA


Dr. Surendra Singh
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Government Swami Vivekanand College, Raisen (M.P.) (Affiliated to Barkatullah University, Bhopal)
Abstract
This paper explores the role played by the bilateral exchange rate variability (both in the exchange rate levels and its volatility) in explaining the Indo-China and Indo-USA bilateral trade. The volatility series of the exchange rates have been generated using the GARCH method and ARDL approach to cointegration has been used to estimate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between the variables of interest. The findings reveal that India’s exports with China and USA is positively influenced the exchange rates levels of Indian rupee with the respective currencies of these countries, but the volatility of the exchange rate exerts statistically insignificant effect. The exchange rate levels do influence India’s imports from the respective country in the long run only but the coefficient significant only in the case of India's imports from China. The volatility of the dollar-rupee exchange rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on imports from the USA in the long-run whereas in the short-run, the volatility of current period has positive, and the volatility of the previous period has a negative effect on imports from the USA. The yuan-rupee volatility has an insignificant effect on India’s import from China both in the long-run and short-run. The major factor that explains much of India's export to the USA and China in the long run is the GDP of these countries suggesting that India’s exports to these countries are income elastic. The results regarding India's imports shows that only China's GDP has a positive and significant effect on India's imports from China. In the long-run, India imports from the USA are income elastic but from China, they are income inelastic.
Keywords: Exchange rate, bilateral-trade, GARCH, Cointegration, Indo-China, Indo-USA.
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economic and Business Review(JEBR)

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Published on : 2025-07-17

Vol : 13
Issue : 7
Month : July
Year : 2025
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