EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON INDIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ARDL APPROACH


Dr. Niranjan R, Dr. Kamaxi
1. Department of Studies and Research in Economics, Vijayanagara Sri Krishnadevaraya University, Ballari, 2.Central University of Andhra Pradesh Ananthapur, AP.515701
Abstract
Based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, this paper assesses the effects of international trade on the economic growth of India starting in 1980 and up to 2025. Since India has been opening up to international trade after undergoing major economic reforms, the trade-growth relationship has become essential. The ARDL model offers a sound model in the analysis of both short-term and long-term dynamic relationships to investigate the relationship between exports, imports, and GDP growth. The results indicate that there is a strong long term equilibrium relationship between these variables and the co-integration is indicated by F-statistic of 5.22 and a p-value of 0.0042. This implies that trade variables play an important role in the long run-in affecting GDP. Conversely, short-term dynamics, examined by the Error Correction Model (ECM) and Wald tests, show that immediate variation in trade variables has minimal impact on a GDP with p-values indicating that there is no significant short-run causality. The paper emphasizes the need to focus on long run trade strategies to make use of the economic growth as well as demonstrates that short run fluctuations in trade do not have a significant effect on GDP. The insights could be useful to the policy makers who seek to establish effective trade policies that will result in sustainable economic development in India.
Keywords: International Trade, ARDL Approaches, Economic Growth, GDP, Error Correction Model
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economic and Business Review(JEBR)

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Published on : 2026-04-04

Vol : 14
Issue : 4
Month : April
Year : 2026
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