Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John, Kagarura Willy Rwamparagi
Kabale University, Kabale, Uganda
Abstract
This study examines trends in Nigeria’s population dynamics from 1962 to 2022, utilizing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling approach. Time-series data, sourced from the World Bank, uses population density (people per square kilometer) as the dependent variable, with autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as independent variables. Parameter estimation through generalized least squares (GLS) reveals positive and statistically significant coefficients for AR(1) and MA(3), at 0.4339 and 0.3173, respectively. These findings indicate persistent short-term dependencies and cyclical patterns in population growth. Projections based on the ARIMA (1, 2, 3) model suggest a sustained average annual increase of 6.81% in population density from 2023 to 2042. Policymakers should utilize these insights for urban development, infrastructure, and resource management, ensuring sustainable growth amid rising population pressures.
Keywords: ARIMA modelling, Population Density
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS)

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Published on : 2025-01-25

Vol : 12
Issue : 1
Month : January
Year : 2025
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