MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AND GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA


Kagarura Willy Rwamparagi, Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John
Kabale University, Kabale, Uganda
Abstract
This study examines the impact of macroeconomic factors on gross capital formation in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2002 to 2022 using auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) models and balanced panel data from the World Bank. The conceptual framework includes gross capital formation as the dependent variable, while the independent variables are government expenditure, foreign exchange rates, gross domestic savings, lending interest rates, inflation rates, natural resource rents, trade openness, and population growth rates. Econometric analysis confirms statistically significant relationships among these variables. The low standard error of regression (0.032782) compared to the standard deviation of the dependent variable (0.319780) suggests the model effectively explains variability in gross capital formation. Model selection criteria (Akaike, Schwarz, and Hannan-Quinn) yield negative values, supporting model robustness. Key findings reveal that in the long run, government expenditure, foreign exchange rates, gross domestic savings, lending interest rates, inflation rates, and trade openness positively impact gross capital formation. A 10% increase in these factors results in respective increases of 7.99%, 0.91%, 1.88%, 0.72%, 0.10%, and 0.93%. Conversely, natural resource rents and population growth rates negatively affect gross capital formation, reducing it by 0.51% and 0.17% for a 10% increase. The study recommends enhancing the efficiency of government expenditure, stabilizing exchange rates, promoting domestic savings, managing lending interest rates, and optimizing natural resource wealth. Additionally, fostering trade openness, addressing population growth challenges, investing in infrastructure, implementing financial sector reforms, and encouraging economic diversification are crucial for boosting gross capital formation in the region.
Keywords: Macroeconomic Factors, Gross Capital Formation and Sub-Saharan Africa
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS)

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Published on : 2025-01-28

Vol : 12
Issue : 1
Month : January
Year : 2025
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