IMPACT OF MICROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON BSE SENSEX AND NIFTY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INFLATION, GDP, INTEREST RATE, AND EXCHANGE RATE


Mr. Venkata Rao Valluri , Bhukya Manjunath Naik
Department of Management Studies, Madanapalle Institute of Technology & Science, Madanapalli , Andhra Pradesh
Abstract
The performance of stock markets reflects a country's economic health and is influenced by various microeconomic variables. This study explores the dynamic relationships between key financial indicators—inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, and exchange rate—and the performance of India's two primary stock indices: BSE Sensex and Nifty 50. Using time-series econometric methods, including ADF unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and vector error correction models (VECM), the paper establishes how these variables impact stock returns over the period 2010–2025. The findings indicate significant long-run and short-run relationships, with GDP and exchange rate showing a strong association with stock market indices, while inflation and interest rates exert negative pressure.
Keywords: BSE Sensex, Nifty 50, Inflation, GDP, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Stock Market, Time Series Analysis.
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS)

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Published on : 2025-07-16

Vol : 12
Issue : 7
Month : July
Year : 2025
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