THE TRUMP EFFECT: A SECTORAL EVENT STUDY OF UNITED STATES TRADE POLICY SHOCKS ON THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET


Dr. Vimal Kumarie V
Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce, E.G.S.Pillay. Art and Science College (Autonomous) Nagapatinam, Tamil Nadu
Abstract
This study investigates the sectoral impact of the April 7, 2025, U.S. tariff announcement—part of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy—on the Indian stock market. Employing an event study methodology, we examine abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) for seven major NSE sectoral indices over a [-1, +3] day event window, using the NIFTY 50 as the market benchmark. Results reveal a sharp and heterogeneous market reaction. Export-oriented sectors such as Metals (-0.67% CAR), Pharmaceuticals (-0.43% CAR), and Automobiles (-0.30% CAR) experienced significant declines, reflecting their vulnerability to global trade disruptions. In contrast, Energy (+2.04% CAR) emerged as the strongest beneficiary, followed by marginal gains in Banking (+0.30% CAR) and Information Technology (+0.10% CAR). FMCG, despite its defensive nature, registered the steepest drop (-0.80% CAR), possibly due to anticipated consumer demand pressures. The findings highlight the susceptibility of emerging market sectors to external policy shocks and underscore the need for diversified export markets, robust hedging strategies, and strengthened domestic value chains. Policy recommendations are provided for businesses, investors, and regulators to enhance resilience against global trade uncertainties.
Keywords: US Tariff, Sectoral index, Abnormal Return, Cumulative Abnormal Return
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS)

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Published on : 2025-08-18

Vol : 12
Issue : 8
Month : August
Year : 2025
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