SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AND INFLATIONARY DYNAMICS: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH TO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY, 91-DAY TREASURY BILL, AND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX


Azebre Abu Ibrahim, Mashud Wahab
1. C. K. Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Navrongo, Ghana, 2. University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between short-term interest rates and inflation in Ghana using monthly data from January 1971 to June 2025. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was transformed into an inflation series to meet integration requirements, enabling the use of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The results reveal three important findings. Inflation displays strong persistence, confirming that past price changes strongly influence current outcomes. Treasury bill yields significantly co-move with inflation in the short run, reflecting their role as forward-looking indicators of market expectations. By contrast, the monetary policy rate exerts weak and inconsistent short-run effects, even under the inflation-targeting framework. Bounds testing confirmed a long-run relationship, but the error correction model showed that adjustment arises mainly from inflation itself, with nearly 42 percent of disequilibria corrected each month. Monetary policy in Ghana should rely more on market-based instruments, especially Treasury bills, while improving fiscal - monetary coordination and addressing structural and exchange-rate constraints to better anchor inflation expectations. A further application of nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) or regime-switching models could help capture possible asymmetries and structural breaks, given Ghana’s history of policy regime changes and external shocks.
Keywords: Treasury bill, Inflation, Monetary Policy, ARDL
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS)

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Published on : 2026-01-08

Vol : 13
Issue : 1
Month : January
Year : 2026
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