stdClass Object
(
    [id] => 15111
    [paper_index] => 202502-13-020164
    [title] => LITTLE EDUCATION BREEDS LITTLE EDUCATION IN NIGER
    [description] => 
    [author] => Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John, Kagarura Willy Rwamparagi
    [googlescholar] => 
    [doi] => 
    [year] => 2025
    [month] => February
    [volume] => 13
    [issue] => 2
    [file] => fm/jpanel/upload/2025/February/202502-13-020164.pdf
    [abstract] => This study examines a persistent cycle of low educational attainment in Niger, where limited education continues to reinforce itself over time. Using historical data from 2011 to 2023, we apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology to analyze monthly time-series patterns in educational attainment. The study utilizes World Bank data, with educational attainment (at least completed upper secondary, population 25+, total %) as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components serve as independent variables. Parameter estimation, conducted using conditional least squares (CLS), reveals a statistically significant AR(4) coefficient (0.7596), suggesting that approximately 76% of past educational attainment influences future levels, perpetuating a cycle of low attainment. Additionally, the negative MA(4) coefficient (-0.9699) indicates that about 97% of past errors or shocks are corrected over time, yet without significant structural changes, educational progress remains slow. The estimated ARIMA(4,2,4) model is found to be covariance stationary and invertible, confirming its reliability for forecasting future trends. These findings highlight a self-reinforcing nature of educational underdevelopment in Niger, where low attainment in one generation significantly affects the next. To break this cycle, we recommend increased investment in secondary education, targeted literacy programs, and policies that address systemic barriers to educational progression.
    [keywords] => ARIMA Modelling, Educational Attainment
    [doj] => 2025-02-20
    [hit] => 
    [status] => 
    [award_status] => P
    [orderr] => 3
    [journal_id] => 13
    [googlesearch_link] => 
    [edit_on] => 
    [is_status] => 1
    [journalname] => EPRA International Journal of Economic Growth and Environmental Issues (EGEI)
    [short_code] => IJRV
    [eissn] => 2321-6247
    [pissn] => 
    [home_page_wrapper] => images/products_image/1.EGEI.png
)
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