stdClass Object
(
    [id] => 15137
    [paper_index] => 202502-13-020295
    [title] => THE PARADOX OF PLENTY IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENCE OF POVERTY DESPITE VAST NATURAL RESOURCES
    [description] => 
    [author] => Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John, Kagarura Willy Rwamparagi
    [googlescholar] => 
    [doi] => 
    [year] => 2025
    [month] => February
    [volume] => 13
    [issue] => 2
    [file] => fm/jpanel/upload/2025/February/202502-13-020295.pdf
    [abstract] => Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite being endowed with vast natural resources, continues to experience persistent poverty, an economic anomaly known as the Paradox of Plenty. This study empirically examines this paradox by applying an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach to historical data from 1990 to 2023 using World Bank data. GDP per capita (PPP, current international $) is used as a proxy for poverty, modeled as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components serve as independent variables. Conditional least squares (CLS) estimation reveals a statistically significant negative AR(1) coefficient (-0.677625) and a positive MA(3) coefficient (0.831061), suggesting that approximately 68% of past poverty levels persist over time, while 83% of poverty shocks propagate through short-term fluctuations. The estimated ARIMA(1,2,3) model is found to be covariance stationary and invertible, confirming its robustness for forecasting poverty trends. Projections from 2024 to 2043 indicate a gradual yet modest improvement, with GDP per capita rising from $1,695 in 2024 to $1,909 by 2043. However, this growth remains insufficient to drive meaningful poverty reduction. The findings underscore the critical need for policies that address the structural inefficiencies preventing resource wealth from translating into broad-based economic development. Without strategic interventions to improve governance, enhance economic diversification, and ensure equitable resource distribution, the DRC risks remaining locked in a cycle of poverty despite its immense natural endowments.
    [keywords] => ARIMA modelling, Poverty, Resources, Democratic Republic of Congo
    [doj] => 2025-02-23
    [hit] => 
    [status] => 
    [award_status] => P
    [orderr] => 4
    [journal_id] => 13
    [googlesearch_link] => 
    [edit_on] => 
    [is_status] => 1
    [journalname] => EPRA International Journal of Economic Growth and Environmental Issues (EGEI)
    [short_code] => IJRV
    [eissn] => 2321-6247
    [pissn] => 
    [home_page_wrapper] => images/products_image/1.EGEI.png
)
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