ECONOMIC GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN UGANDA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION


Natuhomugisha Caroline, Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John, Kagarura Willy Rwamparagi
Kabale University, Kabale, Uganda
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between economic growth and household consumption expenditure in Uganda using annual time-series data from 1983–2024 obtained from the World Bank. A Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is employed to examine the dynamic interaction between GDP growth and Household and NPISHs final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP. The findings show that household consumption remains a dominant component of Uganda’s economy, averaging about 78% of GDP during the study period. The VAR results reveal strong persistence in household consumption, indicating that past consumption significantly influences current consumption levels. The analysis further shows that lagged household consumption positively affects GDP growth, suggesting that increased household spending contributes to economic expansion. In addition, GDP growth exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on household consumption expenditure, with a coefficient of 0.213770, implying that a 10% increase in GDP growth raises household consumption by approximately 2.14%. Unit root tests indicate that household consumption is stationary at level, while GDP growth becomes stationary after first differencing. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between economic growth and household consumption expenditure. Diagnostic tests further show that the VAR model is stable and its residuals are normally distributed, confirming the reliability of the estimates. The study concludes that economic growth and household consumption in Uganda are mutually reinforcing. It recommends policies that promote sustained growth, employment creation, investment, and macroeconomic stability to enhance household incomes and consumption expenditure.
Keywords: Vector Autoregression, GDP growth, Household consumption expenditure, Uganda
Journal Name :
EPRA International Journal of Economic Growth and Environmental Issues (EGEI)

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Published on : 2026-05-18

Vol : 14
Issue : 5
Month : May
Year : 2026
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