Ethiopia remains one of the most corrupt countries in the world, consistently ranking among the lowest in global corruption indices. This study analyzes trends and patterns in the control of corruption from 2002 to 2023 using a quantitative approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. Quarterly time-series data from the World Bank is examined, with the Control of Corruption: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of the 90% Confidence Interval as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components serve as independent variables. Parameter estimation using conditional least squares (CLS) reveals that the AR(2) coefficient is -0.4591, which is negative and statistically significant, indicating that approximately 46% of the gains in corruption control tend to reverse after about two periods. Conversely, the MA(2) coefficient is 0.9754, which is positive and statistically significant, suggesting that approximately 98% of the shocks to corruption control have a strong and lasting impact. These findings underscore the persistence of weak corruption control in Ethiopia despite ongoing anti-corruption efforts. The study recommends that policymakers strengthen institutional frameworks, enhance transparency, and implement more effective enforcement mechanisms to improve Ethiopia’s performance in fighting corruption.