Coconut, frequently esteemed as the "Tree of Life," holds a crucial socio-economic and cultural significance in India's agricultural framework, especially in Kerala and Karnataka. This study conducts a comparative analysis of coconut production patterns in two main producing states from 2016–17 to 2023–24, employing statistical forecasting via linear trend analysis to project output till 2029–30. The results indicate a troubling decrease in Kerala's output trajectory, linked to structural issues, including aged plantations, climate susceptibility, and stagnating technological advancement. Karnataka exhibits a slow recovery and an upward trajectory, indicating adaptive agricultural practices and effective policy initiatives. The study incorporates a comprehensive evaluation of existing literature, empirical data analysis, and predictive models to emphasise evolving regional trends in coconut production. Karnataka is expected to exceed Kerala in coconut production by 2029–30. These observations emphasise Kerala's need to rejuvenate its coconut industry via focused replantation, innovation, and policies centred on farmers, while Karnataka's experience illustrates the transformative capacity of sustainable agricultural practices. The report advocates for targeted initiatives to enhance the resilience and competitiveness of India's coconut economy in a globalized context.